Bumby the Loaf @wallhackio@cat.family

@amy who is cookie mastodon

I had a character with an axe that had a 67% chance of hitting and would strike twice (each hit has the 67% hit probability). I had three turns to hit a character before they escaped with a valuable item. It would take two hits to defeat this enemy.

Now, Fire Emblem 3 Houses lies with its % reporting. Percentages above 50% are actually higher than reported and percentages lower than 50% are lower than reported. Without going into too much detail, a reported 67% hit chance is actually 78.55%.

So, to not defeat the enemy in time, I needed every attack to miss or five of the attacks to miss. The probability for every attack missing is

1) (1 - 0.7855)⁶

If we have a 78.55% chance to hit then we have a 100% - 78.55% to miss. We multiply this probability for each miss.

Meanwhile, the probability for five misses and one hits is
2) 6 * (0.7855)¹ * (1 - 0.7855)⁵

We have the probability of missing five times and the probability of hitting once. Now, why the multiplicative factor of six? That's because the single attack that hits could be the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, or sixth swing, and we must account for every case.

The total probability of not defeating the enemy is the sum of the two cases.

(1 - 0.7855)⁶ + 6 * (0.7855)¹ * (1 - 0.7855)⁵ = 0.00223750036

which is about a 0.22% chance. The probability of defeating the enemy was 0.99776249963 or about a 99.776% chance. Fuck me

I did something that had a 99.776% chance of working and it failed fuck this chungus earth

@BestGirlGrace everything is bigger in sexas

@cam but then how are you going to date someone in coral island

@vaporeon_ @Breakfast @aescling that should be the english name

@vaporeon_ oh i understood that was referring to species, not individual penguins haha

@vaporeon_ @Breakfast @aescling is this the real name????

@vaporeon_ there are only 20 penguins????

@cam consumption is enjoyable

@vaporeon_ @amy its the vappy!

@amy hi amy!

@lapis your dad and his inexcusable media engagement conduct

@lapis what the actual fuck

@vaporeon_ vaporeons are allowed to learn/relearn on the spot how to do things instead of knowing the entirety of a computer's functionality all at once forever

@cam good taste tbh

@coriander hell yeah

@cam hellooo

@vaporeon_ good night!