who would win ?

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@Lady cannot pick the latter because fuck the eagles

@Lady pain and sadness. but as a lions fan, i have been well-prepared to cope for this

@wallhackio i don't think your sister is coping well you should share some techniques

@Lady for starters, she could start infodumping on your forum

@wallhackio @Lady i think my exact phrasing was “i don’t really care enough about this game to bother making sense of the math but i am impressed by wallhackios dedication”

@Satsuma @Lady to be perfectly honest i wrote those posts for myself, and the math involved would be challenging even for undergraduates with a BS in math/physics/engineering

@wallhackio @Lady writing for yourself is the best reason to write fandom posts

@wallhackio @Lady i showed this post to Niko and they said you overcomplicated things and should have used a central limit theorem instead

@Satsuma @Lady i am much better at being eventually correct than being efficient or useful

@Satsuma @Lady what specifically were they referring to regarding the central limit theorem

@wallhackio @Lady they only read your first problem, and they were just like “oh thats Gaussian” and then said to use the central limit theorem but i did not ask much by way of followup

@Satsuma @Lady that's very physicist of them. unfortunately the number of summed distributions is too small in practice for the central limit theorem to be generally useful here so the more precise analysis is still necessary

@wallhackio @Lady hilariously they predicted you would say that but they were like “its very normal really”

@Satsuma @Lady I really don't see the issue with using a Irwin-Hall distribution since, like a bell curve, it's also mathematically easy to deal with while also being exactly correct

@wallhackio @Lady anyway then we got distracted by talking about younger sister’s discord server’s cookie clicker bot called bread game which apparently has spawned an entire galaxy exploration simulator???

@wallhackio @Lady anarchy chess nerds are beyond my ken but the gist was that if you’re willing to share resources with another player you can both min max into specific skills and make ridiculous amounts of bread

also, someone trained a lil learning algorithm to predict the stonks and it was so accurate the two people developing the bot had to overhaul the whole minigame to not be based on pythons random number generator anymore

@wallhackio @Lady oh and the black hole at the center of the galaxy mostly just spawns corrupted bread which is useless but she thinks if you roll well enough you can get really good stuff there (good stuff seems to be chess pieces???)

@Satsuma @Lady next time Niko visits you should show them the PDF i linked that shows the math I used to make my shotgun hitrates graphs

it is some of the most interesting mathematical work i have ever done

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