Because the seed maker returns a random amount of seeds I had to run many simulations and the chart you see shows the average profit acquired by that day for Ancient Fruit. I assume that, in larger farms, the fruit produced by an Ancient Seed plant will have to be given to a seed maker to make more plants until the desired number of plants are made. This adds a much larger ramp-up time to the profits than there is for a single plant.

A thing to keep in mind for larger farms is that you run out of empty casks for aging wine. There is a hard limit on the number of casks you can have at any given time, and when you make large Star Fruit farms, you fill all of these casks quite quickly. This means that the larger your farm, the sooner you start making profits assuming that you immediately sell the wine that cannot be aged. So for larger farms, not only is the Ancient Fruit ramp-up time longer because the early fruit are used are used to create more seeds instead of create wine, the Ancient Seeds have more ground to cover because an equally-sized Star Fruit farm quickly fills all of its casks and starts generating profit from selling unaged wine.

The downside of large Star Fruit farms, and something that admittedly is not made clear by the charts I shared, is that there is a large initial cost that takes a long time to overcome, since you have to purchase a large number of Star Fruit seeds multiple times before you fill all of the casks. For example, a farm with 116 Star Fruit plants growing in the greenhouse loses 139000g in profits by day 32 before you start having wines to sell. This may not be money you have to spend by the time you unlock the greenhouse.

This analysis was done using a Deno script which can be found at https://gitlab.com/bumbydaloaf/starfruit-vs-ancient-fruit.

@wallhackio why is the star fruit line so much more irregular in the 116 graph than the other two? the cask maximum meaning you have more sell prices?